The Physical Layer

AI and energy infrastructure, explained plainly.

Research

Initiation notes on the companies that build the physical layer of AI. Each comes with its Excel model, and every call is dated and marked monthly against its target. None is ever deleted.

The calls

Each call against the closing price on the day it was published. Returns are signed so that a call going the right way is positive.

CompanyPublishedCallPrice thenTargetLatestReturnStatusFiles
Constellation CEG 30 October 2026 No call, medium US$264.58 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Siemens Energy ENR 28 October 2026 Long, medium €128.58 €160.00 Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Eaton ETN 26 October 2026 Long, low US$366.11 US$430.00 Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Hitachi 6501 22 October 2026 No call, medium ¥5,840.00 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
GE Vernova GEV 9 October 2026 No call, medium US$999.35 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Marvell MRVL 8 October 2026 Long, medium US$284.68 US$355.00 Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Ajinomoto 2802 7 October 2026 No call, low ¥5,346.00 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
ASML ASML 7 October 2026 No call, medium €1,636.40 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Micron MU 7 October 2026 No call, low US$1,045.56 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Schneider Electric SU 7 October 2026 No call, medium €260.50 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Broadcom AVGO 7 October 2026 Long, medium US$362.51 US$485.00 Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Lumentum LITE 7 October 2026 No call, medium US$1,091.67 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Oklo OKLO 7 October 2026 Short, low US$35.97 US$28.00 Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Bloom Energy BE 6 October 2026 No call, medium US$286.65 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Corning GLW 6 October 2026 No call, medium US$159.37 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Texas Instruments TXN 6 October 2026 No call, medium US$294.90 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
TSMC TSM 6 October 2026 No call, medium US$485.80 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Nebius NBIS 6 October 2026 No call, medium US$232.57 None Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model
Vertiv VRT 6 October 2026 Long, medium US$253.62 US$300.00 Not yet marked n/a Open Note Model

The notes

  1. No call

    Constellation Nasdaq: CEG

    Constellation's scarcest asset is its place on the grid. At US$265, the shares already price in most of its own plan.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on Nuclear power for AI comes from old reactors first. The new ones wait on fuel.

  2. Long, target €160

    Siemens Energy Frankfurt (Xetra): ENR

    Siemens Energy's grid order book keeps growing faster than its factories can empty it. At €128.58, the market pays little for that.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on The equipment queue: transformer and switchgear makers are building to keep the wait, not to end it

  3. Long, target US$430

    Eaton NYSE: ETN

    Eaton has a year of orders waiting. At US$366, the shares price in the margin it lost this year, not the margin it gets back.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on The equipment queue: transformer and switchgear makers are building to keep the wait, not to end it

  4. No call

    Hitachi Tokyo: 6501

    Hitachi Energy's queue will outlast its new factories. At ¥5,840, Hitachi already prices in most of what that is worth.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on The equipment queue: transformer and switchgear makers are building to keep the wait, not to end it

  5. No call

    GE Vernova NYSE: GEV

    GE Vernova's queue is real and its customers are paying for it. At US$999, the shares already pay for the 2028 plan.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on Building your own power: GE Vernova's queue, not the grid's, sets the date

  6. Long, target US$355

    Marvell Nasdaq: MRVL

    Marvell's optical toll is still the biggest line in its own plan. At US$285, the price needs little growth after fiscal 2028.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on How ten thousand chips talk: the glass stays, and the plug survives its replacement

  7. No call

    Ajinomoto Tokyo: 2802

    Ajinomoto is a food company with a chip film inside. At ¥5,346, most of the price is for the film.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on The chip supply chain's slow parts are sold years before they are made

  8. No call

    ASML Euronext Amsterdam: ASML

    ASML's machines are booked to 2027, so its earnings are unusually visible. At €1,636, the price already pays for them.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on The chip supply chain's slow parts are sold years before they are made

  9. No call

    Micron Nasdaq: MU

    Micron's wafers are still short, but at US$1,046 the price needs the next normal year to earn like the last peak.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on The chip supply chain's slow parts are sold years before they are made

  10. No call

    Schneider Electric Euronext Paris: SU

    Schneider Electric is still selling the finished system. After the PTC sell-off, at €260.50 the price is close to fair.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on The equipment queue: transformer and switchgear makers are building to keep the wait, not to end it

  11. Long, target US$485

    Broadcom Nasdaq: AVGO

    Broadcom is still paid either way, but the tailor now earns most of the toll. At US$363, the price assumes AI revenue barely grows after fiscal 2027.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on How ten thousand chips talk: the glass stays, and the plug survives its replacement

  12. No call

    Lumentum Nasdaq: LITE

    Lumentum is shipping behind demand for its lasers. At US$1,092, the shares already pay for the shortage to outlast the new factories.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on How ten thousand chips talk: the glass stays, and the plug survives its replacement

  13. Short, target US$28

    Oklo NYSE: OKLO

    Oklo sells electricity it has not yet made. At US$36, the shares price a bigger fleet than all the customers it has announced.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on Nuclear power for AI comes from old reactors first. The new ones wait on fuel.

  14. No call

    Bloom Energy NYSE: BE

    Bloom Energy's buyers pay for time. Bloom is paid in volume, and at US$287 the shares already need it.

    Note PDF, 6 pp Model Excel Rests on Building your own power: GE Vernova's queue, not the grid's, sets the date

  15. No call

    Corning NYSE: GLW

    Corning's AI fibre is sold out. At US$159, the shares already pay for it to stay that way.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on How ten thousand chips talk: the glass stays, and the plug survives its replacement

  16. No call

    Texas Instruments Nasdaq: TXN

    Texas Instruments' data centre business is real. At US$295, the shares already pay for a full analog upturn as well.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on Powering the rack: 800 volts reaches the AI rack before it reaches the building

  17. No call

    TSMC NYSE: TSM

    TSMC is the bottleneck today. At US$486, the ADR already pays for it still being one in 2028.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on The chip supply chain's slow parts are sold years before they are made

  18. No call

    Nebius Nasdaq: NBIS

    Nebius is paid only for power that is switched on. At US$233, the shares already assume it switches on fast.

    Note PDF, 7 pp Model Excel Rests on Contracted, energised, running: how Abilene, Nebius and Jane Street's AI capacity really arrives

  19. Long, target US$300

    Vertiv NYSE: VRT

    The market has sold Vertiv as a volume story. Its margin says each megawatt is worth more.

    Note PDF, 5 pp Model Excel Rests on Powering the rack: 800 volts reaches the AI rack before it reaches the building

Each call rests on a claim made first in the journal. See every claim and what would prove it wrong. These notes are the author's own analysis, not investment advice. The author holds no position in any company covered unless a note says so.