Research · Initiation · 8 October 2026
Marvell Nasdaq: MRVL
Marvell's optical toll is still the biggest line in its own plan. At US$285, the price needs little growth after fiscal 2028.
The call LONG
- Price at publication
- US$284.68close, 7 October 2026
- Target
- US$355.00+24.7% · 12 months, to October 2027
- Conviction
- Medium
What proves it wrongThe shares close below US$230 by October 2027, or Marvell's fiscal 2028 revenue, the year to January 2028, comes in below US$18 billion.
Read the full notePDF, 6 pages: thesis, valuation, scenarios, risks and sources Open the modelExcel, live formulas: change an assumption and the target moves
The call in brief
- Marvell makes the optical signal processors and other parts that let AI chips in different cabinets talk. Data centre revenue reached US$2.17 billion in the quarter to 1 August 2026, 79 per cent of the total and up 46 per cent on a year earlier.
- The claim is holding. At its Investor Day on 6 October Marvell raised fiscal 2028 revenue to about US$20 billion, from US$18 billion, and set a fiscal 2031 target of US$70 billion to US$90 billion. Interconnect is the largest line at the midpoint, about US$37.5 billion, ahead of custom chips at about US$30 billion.
- At US$284.68 and 33 times, the peer median, the shares need fiscal 2029 revenue of about US$22.5 billion, only 12 per cent above the new fiscal 2028 outlook. Marvell's custom target alone adds about US$8 billion that year.
- My call is long, with medium conviction and a target of US$355. I take US$28 billion for fiscal 2029, below the path management set out, which gives US$356 a share, 25 per cent above the price, within a range of US$153 to US$517.
- Where I was wrong: my September piece said the US$1 billion of capacity prepayments was for optical DSPs and switch chips. Marvell has not said what it buys, and its filings describe reservations with foundries and test and assembly partners.