The Physical Layer

AI and energy infrastructure, explained plainly.

Research · Initiation · 9 October 2026

GE Vernova NYSE: GEV

GE Vernova's queue is real and its customers are paying for it. At US$999, the shares already pay for the 2028 plan.

The call No call
Price at publication
US$999.35close, 8 October 2026
Target
Noneno position at this price
Conviction
Medium

What would prove the thesis wrongThe shares close above US$1,250 or below US$750 in October 2027, or full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin lands outside GE Vernova's own 12 to 14 per cent guide, or gigawatts under contract fall below 80 at any quarter end before 2028, four years of the 20 gigawatt output.

What would turn this into a callA price below about US$910, where my base value would sit 15 per cent above it, or GE Vernova raising its 2028 outlook above US$60 billion of revenue at a 20 per cent adjusted EBITDA margin.

Read the full notePDF, 6 pages: thesis, valuation, scenarios, risks and sources Open the modelExcel, live formulas: change an assumption and the target moves

The call in brief

  1. GE Vernova builds large gas turbines, grid equipment and wind turbines. At the end of June it had 116 gigawatts of gas turbines under contract, almost six years of its 20 gigawatt annual output, and US$27.7 billion of customer deposits sat in its Power segment.
  2. The October claim holds. Output rises to 24 gigawatts in 2028 and 30 in 2030 inside the factories it already has, funded by down payments, and the queue sits well above the four-year floor the claim set.
  3. That choice also caps gas turbine volume to 2028. Orders signed this year at prices more than 20 per cent higher mostly ship from 2029, so the next two years rest on the outlook GE Vernova already gave.
  4. At US$999.35 the shares trade at 23 times the adjusted EBITDA GE Vernova expects by 2028. My base case is worth about US$1,048, 5 per cent above the price, within a range of US$560 to US$1,529.
  5. My call: no call, with medium conviction. I would revisit below about US$910, or if GE Vernova lifts its 2028 outlook above US$60 billion of revenue at a 20 per cent margin.