Research · Initiation · 7 October 2026
Oklo NYSE: OKLO
Oklo sells electricity it has not yet made. At US$36, the shares price a bigger fleet than all the customers it has announced.
The call SHORT
- Price at publication
- US$35.97close, 5 October 2026
- Target
- US$28.00+28.5% · 12 months, to October 2027
- Conviction
- Low
What proves it wrongBy October 2027, Oklo signs a binding power purchase agreement for 500 MW or more; or it discloses an Aurora-INL cost at or below US$6,000 a kilowatt and the NRC accepts a licence application for a commercial site; or the shares close above US$60, on the path to my bull case.
Read the full notePDF, 5 pages: thesis, valuation, scenarios, risks and sources Open the modelExcel, live formulas: change an assumption and the target moves
The call in brief
- Oklo designs Aurora, a 75 MW sodium-cooled fast reactor, and plans to own each plant and sell the power. Its first, in Idaho, is targeted for 2028, and nothing is under a binding power purchase agreement yet.
- The build is paid for by shareholders. Oklo raised US$1.85 billion net in the first half of 2026 and about US$320 million more by 10 September, at an average price that fell from US$97 to about US$44, and opened another US$1 billion programme on 11 September.
- At US$35.97 the shares are worth about 2.2 times my estimate of Oklo's cash. On my base plant economics, the price needs about 17 GW running by 2040, more than the 12 GW Switch and 1.2 GW Meta agreements combined.
- My call is short, with low conviction and a twelve-month target of US$28, my probability-weighted value. My base case is worth about US$13.50, 62 per cent below the price, but it rests on a plant cost and a power price Oklo does not disclose, and the bull case doubles the price.
- Where I was wrong: my September piece said cash rose about US$1.9 billion in the first half. It rose about US$1.6 billion; US$1.9 billion is what Oklo raised.