Research · Initiation · 6 October 2026
Nebius Nasdaq: NBIS
Nebius is paid only for power that is switched on. At US$233, the shares already assume it switches on fast.
The call No call
- Price at publication
- US$232.57close, 5 October 2026
- Target
- Noneno position at this price
- Conviction
- Medium
What would prove the thesis wrongConnected power at the end of 2026 comes in below the 800 megawatt bottom of Nebius's own range, or year-end annualised revenue lands below US$7 billion, or prepayments appear in fewer than half of new deals.
What would turn this into a callA price below about US$185, or fourth quarter results in early 2027 showing at least 800 megawatts connected, year-end annualised revenue inside the US$7 to 9 billion range and new deals still at US$20 million a megawatt or more.
Read the full notePDF, 7 pages: thesis, valuation, scenarios, risks and sources Open the modelExcel, live formulas: change an assumption and the target moves
The call in brief
- Nebius builds AI computing centres and rents them out. It is paid only once the chips are running, months after the power is connected.
- New contracts pay US$20 to 25 million a megawatt a year, about twice the 2026 fleet. At the old price a megawatt barely earns its cost; at the new one it returns 16 to 25 per cent before tax.
- The gap between that price and a US$7 to 9 billion run-rate guide closes once you see that most new capacity bills in 2027, not 2026.
- At about 12.7 times 2027 EBITDA the market already pays for fast switch-on at the new price. My base case is worth about the share price, and the bear case is a 66 per cent fall.
- Where I was wrong: my September piece said customers pay for connected power. They pay for active power, so that is the number to watch.