Research · Initiation · 28 October 2026
Siemens Energy Frankfurt (Xetra): ENR
Siemens Energy's grid order book keeps growing faster than its factories can empty it. At €128.58, the market pays little for that.
The call LONG
- Price at publication
- €128.58close, 27 October 2026
- Target
- €160.00+24.4% · 12 months, to October 2027
- Conviction
- Medium
What proves it wrongGrid Technologies' profit margin before special items for fiscal 2027 lands below 18 per cent, or its orders fall below its revenue in fiscal 2027, or Siemens Gamesa's free cash flow pre tax for fiscal 2027 is worse than minus €2 billion, or the shares close below €105 at any month end before October 2027.
Read the full notePDF, 6 pages: thesis, valuation, scenarios, risks and sources Open the modelExcel, live formulas: change an assumption and the target moves
The call in brief
- Grid Technologies, Siemens Energy's grid business, makes power transformers, switchgear and HVDC links. It took orders at 1.88 times its revenue in the nine months to June 2026, and its backlog rose to €51 billion, from €33 billion in September 2024.
- The October claim holds. Grid's orders to June already exceed my estimate of its revenue for the whole of fiscal 2026, so the pile grows again this year. Siemens Energy says data centres add to that demand but are not its foundation.
- Grid is about half of my sum of the parts value and Gas Services about two fifths. Siemens Gamesa, the wind business, I value at close to nothing after the cash it still has to burn.
- At €128.58 the market values Grid at about 13 times my fiscal 2027 estimate of its profit before special items, if the rest of the group is valued at my base multiples. My base case is worth about €163, 27 per cent above the price, within a range of €98 to €218.
- My call: long, with medium conviction, and a 12-month target of €160, my probability-weighted value rounded, 24 per cent above the price. The next test is the fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlook on 11 November.