Research · Initiation · 7 October 2026
ASML Euronext Amsterdam: ASML
ASML's machines are booked to 2027, so its earnings are unusually visible. At €1,636, the price already pays for them.
- Price at publication
- €1,636.40close, 6 October 2026
- Target
- Noneno position at this price
- Conviction
- Medium
What would prove the thesis wrongBy October 2027, ASML says 2027 low NA EUV shipments will fall more than 10 per cent short of about 85 because customers pushed out or cancelled orders, which points to my bear case; or it confirms 2028 low NA capacity of 110 or more and says 2028 is close to fully covered with orders, which points to my bull case.
What would turn this into a callA price at or below about €1,475, which points long, or at or above about €2,262, which points short, with my numbers unchanged; or results that move my 2028 EPS to about €67.21 or more, which points long, or to about €43.83 or less, which points short.
The call in brief
- ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography machines. It expects to ship about 65 low NA EUV machines in 2026, all of its capacity, and plans about 85 for 2027, which it says is close to fully covered with orders. It guides 2026 total net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, up about a third.
- The evidence since the piece supports the claim. Output steps up about 30 per cent a year inside existing cleanrooms. Installed Base Management, lifted by NXE:3800E field upgrades, grew 28 per cent in the first half of 2026 and beat guidance by almost €300 million in the second quarter.
- At €1,636.40 the shares trade at 31.6 times 2027 consensus earnings. At 28 times 2028 earnings, my base multiple, the price needs about 94 low NA machines in 2028 with my other assumptions: more than the 85 planned for 2027 and fewer than the 110 ASML is investigating.
- My call is no call, with medium conviction. Twenty-eight times my 2028 EPS of €60.59 gives €1,697, 4 per cent above the price, within a range of €1,013 to €2,208. On earnings the shares look roughly fairly priced; a DCF cross-check falls below the price only if cash conversion runs below its recent history.